It was said by Trump’s crypto adviser, David Bailey, that a Bitcoin bear market will not happen for several years, but analysts are not so certain.
It was said by David Bailey, an entrepreneur and Bitcoin adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, that another Bitcoin bear market will not occur for several years, due to growing institutional interest in the crypto market.
It was said by Bailey in an X post on Saturday that it’s the “first time we’ve ever seen real institutional buy-in.”
“Every Sovereign, Bank, Insurer, Corporate, Pension, and more will own Bitcoin. The process has already begun in earnest, yet we haven’t even captured 0.01% of the Total addressable market (TAM). We’re going so much higher. Dream big,” he added.
He said earlier institutional interest was just “outliers with marginal bets.”
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Bailey, founder of Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Inc., served as an adviser during Trump’s presidential campaign and is credited as a central figure in the president’s Bitcoin pivot.
Over the last two years, institutions have had a steady increase in their exposure to crypto through investment vehicles like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the establishment of crypto treasuries, with total holdings being made mostly of Bitcoin (BTC) and surging past $100 billion.
Factors That Could Trigger a Crypto Bear Market
It was suggested by a June report from venture capital (VC) firm Breed that few of these treasury companies would survive long term, which could trigger the next crypto bear market.
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Earlier this year, the stock market nearly slipped into a bear market, but according to Zheng, it was able to rebound, and several developments have since lowered the odds of a repeat.
“Right now it’s one of the biggest signals in terms of the Fed willing to cut the interest rate, most likely, in September, and that’s probably the beginning of a low-interest-rate cycle, given the economic data and the labor market softening.”
Meanwhile, it was said by Pav Hundal, the lead market analyst at Australian crypto broker Swyftx, that the market has been risk-on and that has supported a rotation into high-momentum assets like Bitcoin and Ether.
Still, it is expected by him that a re-rotation back into fixed-income instruments will be seen at some point.
“Interest rate rises are politically tricky, but the market expects a rise again over the next year, and that could be a catalyst for a correction.”
The End of Crypto Bear Markets May Be Possible
The last bear market was in 2022, and before that, it was in 2018. In both instances, a booming bull market had preceded the crash.
“The Direct access trading (DAT) and institutional markets add huge pools of demand, but they also come with risks, some of the DATs will be late to the party, overleveraged and not prepared for the volatility that makes this asset class so interesting, potentially being the catalyst of the next bear market.”
McMillin said there is a possibility there will be no bear market, “similar to gold post the early 2000s ETF launch as the asset was financialized and up only for eight years.”
Another factor is the bull market that precedes any bear market; without a parabolic bull market, a deep and sustained bear market cannot be had.
