Julien Bittel challenges “peak cycle” sentiment in crypto markets, citing macro data that points to a different landscape.
Julien Bittel, who is head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, argued that the bull run remains in its early stages, based on comprehensive economic indicators.
In a Sept. 8 analysis shared via X, Bittel counters widespread “peak cycle” sentiment in crypto markets, challenging late-cycle narratives by examining traditional economic markers.
Peaked Sentiment? A Look at the Crypto Market
Traditional late-cycle economies are characterized by exceptionally strong manufacturing sentiment, with ISM readings around 60, heightened services sentiment, strong homebuilder confidence, robust consumer and worker confidence, optimistic investor sentiment, and increasing wage growth.
Bittel said current data paints a different picture. When scoring inputs from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, and The Conference Board into a composite sentiment measure, US economic sentiment remains “very subdued” and far from euphoric late-cycle extremes.
“This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.”
He stated:
Central bank policy provides additional support for this thesis. Nearly 90% of central banks globally are cutting rates, which creates what Bittel describes as “extraordinary” conditions and “a massive tailwind for the business cycle” on a forward-looking basis.
Oil prices reinforce the early-cycle argument, trading nearly 20% below trend and continuing to fall. This represents easing financial conditions rather than the tightening that is typically associated with late-cycle dynamics.
Historically, oil prices running 50% above trend have been a signal of recession since the early 1970s.
Bull Cycle: Are We Still in the Early Stages?
Temporary Help Services data shows “early-cycle vibes,” with rising growth from profoundly negative levels, indicating economic recovery rather than a rollover.
According to Bittel, late-cycle periods typically feature positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, reflecting an overheated economy losing steam.
He attributes rising unemployment to the lagging nature of jobs data, which he calls “a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.”
Businesses first increase overtime hours and temporary workers before committing to expensive full-time hires with benefits and pensions.
Bittel also frames current conditions as “early-cycle” transitioning to “mid-cycle,” describing the progression as “Macro Spring” (growth up, inflation down), moving toward “Macro Summer” (growth up, inflation up).
He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing crypto market sentiment, which suggests that the bull cycle has peaked. Instead, he assessed that the current economic conditions support continued expansion rather than contraction.
