While the ‘digital gold’ narrative suggests Bitcoin should be rallying, the asset has instead been overshadowed by precious metals for over a year. According to one analyst, this divergence can only be understood by re-evaluating BTC through a different lens.
Analyst: Bitcoin Behaves More Like High-Beta Equities Than Digital Gold
In a recent article on X, the macro analyst known pseudonymously as Market Radar utilizes the current divergence between BTC and gold to deconstruct the theory of Bitcoin as “digital gold.”
It is stated by him that gold and bitcoin are not in competition for the same role within the financial system.
While gold functions as the premier safe-haven asset, benefiting from anxieties surrounding inflation, debt, or currency debasement, Bitcoin is observed to behave as the most high-risk asset on the market. It is noted by analysts that the digital currency thrives primarily when investor confidence is high, risk appetite is extensive, and liquidity is plentiful.
Says Market Radar:
“ Gold is the ultimate bond, one with no default risk but also no coupon. It’s where capital flows when inflation and sovereign credibility concerns push investors closer in on the risk curve, away from duration and toward something that can’t be printed or defaulted on. Bitcoin, by contrast, is the riskiest asset on the board. It represents fractional ownership of something entirely digital, something you can’t touch, something with no real-world utility outside of financialized products. Bitcoin is the release valve for liquidity when conditions are good and investors want to push further out on the risk curve. It’s an enhanced version of equities, not a competitor to gold.”
It is argued by the analyst that this distinction was proven “decisively” by the events of 2025. While gold prices were sent exploding by relentless central bank accumulation and declining real yields, Bitcoin experienced a significant breakdown, dropping roughly 35% from the record peak of $126,279 established in early October.
This distinction is considered crucial because, contrary to widespread assumptions, contemporary liquidity is not as abundant as it appears on the surface. It is noted by analysts that the underlying market conditions are far more restrictive than superficial indicators might suggest.
A breakdown of the Yen carry trade is noted by Market Radar to be weighing heavily on BTC, as vast amounts of global capital are forced to raise cash. It is reported that investors are seeking to liquidate positions before they unwind further, driven by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to continue raising interest rates.
Although the Federal Reserve has maintained a relatively accommodating stance with interest rates in a clear downtrend, an overlooked liquidity squeeze against BTC is still being created by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), according to the analyst.
“The Fed can be neutral, domestic conditions can be supportive, and bitcoin can still face liquidity headwinds from a central bank on the other side of the world. That’s the reality of trading the riskiest asset on a globally connected curve.”
MarketRadar Says:
According to the analyst, investors are also overlooking a deeper structural element regarding Bitcoin’s underperformance. It is suggested by market experts that beyond simple price action, the underlying shift in how BTC is being utilized within institutional portfolios has fundamentally altered its short-term trajectory.
It is also stated by him that an “enormous passive flow cushion” is possessed by equities due to the billions of dollars being auto-allocated into index and target-date funds. These investments are managed by advisors who remain largely indifferent to risk sentiment or shifting liquidity conditions.
An “asymmetric response to liquidity contraction” is created by this structural gap, which allows equities to remain resilient during periods of tighter monetary conditions and recessionary fears. In contrast, Bitcoin—which lacks any comparable passive bid—is observed to roll over as market support evaporates.
It is noted by Market Radar that with these factors in mind, it is not necessarily suggested that Bitcoin has reached its end. Instead, it is argued that the specific conditions required for a sustained upward trajectory have simply not yet materialized.
The “regime is improving,” he states, and “risk-on is confirmed.” According to the analyst, all that is required now is for the price to demonstrate this shift with a breakout from its current bearish structure.
