It was stated by Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen that such a steep drawdown isn’t guaranteed, but “history would at least caution us.”
A prediction was made by a crypto analyst that Bitcoin could fall by as much as 70% in the next bear market, which could give sidelined investors another chance to accumulate.
Opinions are divided among crypto analysts on the future trajectory of Bitcoin. Some believe a bear market is still distant, while others suggest it could arrive much sooner.
A potential 70% drawdown from the eventual all-time high was predicted by Cowen in a Thursday interview with Kyle Chasse. He noted that previous cycle bear markets experienced Bitcoin drawdowns of 94%, 87%, and approximately 77%.
“Does it have to happen? No, but you know, history would at least caution us to at least believe that it might.”
A Steep Decline From $250,000 Bitcoin
Prices as high as $250,000 are being projected for Bitcoin by some advocates, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, which means a 70% drop would take it down to around $75,000.
“If we start screaming higher in Q4 for me, it’ll just be simple like, all right, this time’s not different, I’ll just take profits back to stables,” was stated by Cowen. He added that he may not re-enter the market until mid-2026.
According to CoinMarketCap, a price of $117,010 is reported for Bitcoin at the time of publication, marking a 3.41% increase over the past 30 days.
Market participants should expect another strong rally, but how quickly it could peak should not be underestimated, according to Cowen.
“Obviously, investors are hopeful we are going to coil up and go into that final rally into the market cycle top,” was stated by him, adding that this should be the base case.
“But if that starts to happen, just remember the top could occur at any moment, right? …No one’s going to be like this is the top,” was stated by him.
“Everyone’s going to be euphoric if we start to see a move up,” was also stated by him.
ETH to Outperform Bitcoin Toward End of Cycle
Meanwhile, Ether is also expected by Cowen to “struggle against” Bitcoin for a few more weeks, but he stated it will ultimately outperform heading into the end of the cycle.
“Until the end of the cycle, Ethereum will likely outperform right from now until the end,” was stated by Cowen.
“I expect weakness through the month of October for ETH,” was added by him. The ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ether’s relative strength to Bitcoin, has seen an 8.56% increase over the past 30 days, according to TradingView.
The typical four-year cycle for Bitcoin’s price is expected by some enthusiasts to continue, while others remain uncertain.
A prediction for an upward trend was made by Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who believes “we’re in for a good few years.”
“I think there is a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year,” was recently stated by Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg.
“Winter is not coming back,” was stated in June by Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor.
