Alex Thorn of Galaxy suggests that the actualized value of Bitcoin presently hovers at $56,000, a threshold the asset will probably retreat toward in the absence of distinct catalysts to ignite a price surge, whereby this downward trajectory is anticipated by market analysts as a standard corrective phase.
The digital asset might persist in its bearish trajectory given the scarcity of momentum-shifters to overhaul the token’s current outlook, suggests Galaxy Digital’s head of investigation Alex Thorn, whereby this prolonged decline is projected as a consequence of stagnant market sentiment.
Thorn indicated in a Monday memorandum that a “substantial likelihood” exists that throughout the approaching weeks, the premier cryptocurrency might descend to the floor of a liquidity void at $70,000 prior to challenging its actualized valuation of $56,000, representing the mean expenditure for every coin currently active, whereby this potential retraction is forecasted as a re-evaluation of fundamental market support.
“Catalysts remain hard to find and narratives are also working against Bitcoin as it fails to trade along with gold and silver as part of a market-wide ‘debasement hedge trade,’”
he added.
The leading cryptocurrency advanced 3% on Monday to exchange marginally beneath $78,500 following a recovery from a three-quarter nadir. According to CoinGecko, the asset presently sits 39% below its historical zenith of more than $126,000 reached in early October, whereby this recent appreciation is interpreted as a tentative stabilization within a broader bearish cycle.
Bitcoin May Find Support at Its Realized Price, Suggesting a Market Bottom
Thorn observed that the premier digital asset has traditionally exchanged beneath its actualized valuation during the troughs of prior market downturns, generally discovering a floor “near or marginally under” its realized cost prior to trending upward, whereby this historical precedent is cited as a critical indicator for identifying potential market reversals.
He further remarked that the primary cryptocurrency has consistently encountered “pivotal backing” at its 200-week rolling mean—representing its median valuation throughout that duration—during each of the preceding three expansive cycles whenever it slipped beneath its 50-week trendline, whereby this technical floor is identified as a recurring safeguard for long-term holders.
Thorn noted that the premier digital asset relinquished its 50-week rolling mean foothold during November, whereas its 200-week trendline presently rests at $58,000, whereby this specific level is monitored as the next significant technical barrier for market participants.
“Those levels have historically marked cycle bottoms and made strong entry points for long-term investors,”
he added.
Slowing Sales by Long-Term Holders May Signal Bitcoin Bottom
Thorn observed that “meager proof of substantial stockpiling” currently exists among institutional whales and enduring investors. This scarcity of demand might depress the asset’s valuation as it indicates that purchasers may be stalling for a deeper retraction prior to entering the market, whereby this cautious behavior is interpreted as a signal of further impending weakness.
Nevertheless, Thorn remarked that the liquidation of gains by enduring investors—an action that typically exerts downward pressure on valuations—has “started to significantly diminish.” However, he suggested a distinct likelihood that additional veteran stakeholders are anticipating loftier valuations before exiting their positions, which frequently generates friction against upward momentum, whereby this market hesitation is viewed as a primary obstacle to a sustained recovery.
“Nonetheless, the recent decline in long-term holder realized profit taking is notable and should signal we are closing in on a bottom,”
he added.
Market Structure Bill Unlikely to Trigger Major Market Moves
The digital asset sector intently monitors the US Senate, as legislators seek to approve a cryptocurrency industry framework legislation designed to define the future governance of the field, whereby this legislative progress is viewed as a pivotal turning point for domestic financial policy.
Nonetheless, Thorn observed that although the enactment of the law “might serve as an immediate external stimulant, the likelihood of approval has ebbed throughout recent weeks,” whereby this shifting probability is recognized by analysts as a significant hurdle for market optimism in the current fiscal quarter.
Legislators have encountered difficulties in securing cross-party backing for the act, and the drive to finalize the statutes has dissipated as the Senate Banking Committee—pivotal to the measure’s success—has failed to organize a follow-up session to move the proposal forward, whereby this administrative stagnation is cited as a primary reason for the current legislative impasse.
Irrespective of these factors, Thorn remarked that “any favorable drive produced by the enactment [is] more inclined to provide advantages to alternative tokens rather than Bitcoin,” whereby this market bifurcation is anticipated as a shift in investor focus toward higher-beta assets following regulatory clarity.
