Report: US Users Continue to Dominate Polymarket Political Betting Despite Geoblock

New data from Allium suggest that geoblocks are being bypassed by US users to place bets on markets available through Polymarket’s global platform.

US-based users remain the largest participants in political betting on Polymarket, despite ongoing efforts by the crypto-based prediction market to restrict access for American citizens, according to newly released research.

According to a report published on Thursday by blockchain research firm Allium, US-based users represent the largest political betting segment on Polymarket in terms of both wallet count and contracts traded. This should not be confused with Polymarket US, a US-regulated platform launched in December that offers a more limited range of markets.

“Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,” the report said. “The demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight.”

The data suggest that Polymarket’s attempts to block US users from accessing its global platform have not been entirely successful, adding another challenge to the company’s growing list of issues as the rapidly expanding prediction market sector continues to face legal and political scrutiny.

Access to Polymarket’s global platform for US users was cut off as part of a $1.4 million settlement reached with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022.

Allium found that foreign conflict-related markets attract greater interest from US users than from the broader platform audience, with five of the top 12 markets by notional trading volume among the US cohort focused on the Iran war.

The data also indicate a lower level of interest in election-related markets, a category of prediction contracts that is permitted on both Kalshi and Polymarket US.

“US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades,” said Allium.

Polymarket Strengthens Efforts to Restrict US User Access#

Allium’s findings are consistent with another study released in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, in which it was estimated that roughly 30% of Polymarket’s trading volume originates from US-based users.

It was estimated by Crane that between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion was transferred through Polymarket by US-based participants between May 2025 and April 2026, despite US IP addresses and VPN services being blocked by the platform to discourage attempts at bypassing those restrictions.

The researcher examined the timing of trades along with the specific markets where they occurred to associate certain transactions with users believed to be based in the United States.

According to a report by The Information in May, certain IP addresses linked to VPN providers have reportedly been blocked by Polymarket as part of a broader effort to limit access by users attempting to bypass platform restrictions.

Countries and Regions Where Polymarket Is Restricted#

Polymarket has been fully restricted in more than 34 countries. Spain became the latest to impose a block, where access to both Polymarket and Kalshi was suspended as a precautionary measure while an investigation is conducted by authorities into whether the platforms have been operating without the required licenses.

Another four countries — Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland — have been placed under a “close only” policy, allowing users to exit existing positions while preventing the opening of any new trades.

Polymarket access has also been restricted in four specific regions — Ontario in Canada, along with Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine. While the platform remains unavailable in those areas, it can still be accessed from other parts of the respective countries.